How "correct" is defined: UP model — predicted probability ≥50% and actual 10-day return >0%. DOWN model — predicted probability ≥50% and actual 10-day return <0%.  |  Model retrained 20260818 with fixed labels and OOF calibration — new-model predictions are marked new below.
All resolved predictions (includes pre-20260818 old model)
Resolved
91324
predictions evaluated
UP Hit Rate
57.9%
39993/69123  ·  avg 1.22%
DOWN Hit Rate
44.2%
1504/3401  ·  avg 1.27%
New model only (retrained 20260818)
Resolved new
59370
from current model
UP Hit Rate new
59.2%
33268/56164  ·  avg 1.30%
DOWN Hit Rate new
43.9%
1407/3206
v3 model only (clean data, retrained 2026-07-19)
Resolved v3
15842
from v3 model
UP Hit Rate v3
64.8%
9589/14805  ·  avg 2.57%
DOWN Hit Rate v3
33.1%
343/1037
Claude pick of the day — history & outcomes
Resolved POTDs
13
10-day windows closed
POTD Hit Rate
38.5%
5/13 positive
POTD Avg Return
+1.77%
per 10-day window
DatePickSourceConfWhyOutcome
2026-08-18 ORCL Oracle Corporation model top 10 60% ORCL offers the cleanest risk/reward in the pool: a strong +21% 20-day uptrend with a healthy 2-3% pullback that resets RSI to a neutral 53, no earnings inside …
2026-08-17 AZN.L AstraZeneca PLC model top 10 55% Among the pool AZN.L offers the best asymmetry: the model's highest prob_up (0.79) coincides with a genuinely oversold technical (RSI 33, -8.6% over 20d) in a d… +2.1% day 1
2026-08-14 CCL Carnival Corporation & p Claude override 58% CCL offers the cleanest setup in the pool: highest tied prob_up (0.73) with a neutral RSI of 54 (not overbought like ZS/ORCL/PAYC), positive 20d momentum (+5.8%… -3.0% day 2
2026-08-13 FSLR First Solar, Inc. model top 10 62% FSLR offers the cleanest catalyst-plus-confirmation setup in the pool: a fresh Baird upgrade and a policy/tariff tailwind that specifically benefits First Solar… -1.6% day 3
2026-08-12 CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc model top 10 60% Among the pool, CBOE offers the cleanest risk/reward: a high prob_up (0.71), strong positive 7d sentiment (+0.39), constructive coverage (Cramer duopoly praise)… +0.0% day 4
2026-08-11 SRE Sempra Claude override 58% SRE offers the cleanest mean-reversion setup in the pool: deeply oversold (RSI 28) with MACD turning up, positive 7d sentiment (+0.17), and — critically — no ea… +2.0% day 5
2026-08-10 CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc Claude override 60% CBOE offers the cleanest risk/reward: prob_up 0.75 with positive sentiment (+0.23), neutral RSI 51, no earnings for 84 days, and constructive news (Cramer prais… +2.1% day 6
2026-08-07 ALGN Align Technology, Inc. model top 10 63% ALGN offers the best clean risk/reward: highest defensible prob_up (0.71) among candidates without an earnings landmine (83 days out), plus the strongest positi… -3.3% day 7
2026-08-06 INCY Incyte Corporation model top 10 63% INCY offers the cleanest alignment of a real fundamental catalyst and technicals: an EU regulatory approval for Opzelura driving a genuine rising sentiment surg… +4.3% day 8
2026-08-05 HON Honeywell International model top 10 60% Among the candidate pool, Honeywell offers the cleanest risk/reward: a durable +10.5% 20-day uptrend, positive news sentiment (+0.24) with a coverage spike, mod… -8.2% day 9
2026-08-04 MPWR Monolithic Power Systems model top 10 55% With half the model's top 10 carrying earnings inside the 10-day window (SMCI/IT 1d, SBMO/ED 3d, GBF 9d), MPWR stands out as a well-supported name with earnings… -0.1%
2026-08-03 NVDA NVIDIA Corporation model top 10 60% Among the top picks it offers the cleanest risk/reward: a positive OBV slope backed by healthy 1.1x volume (not the sub-0.5x illiquidity plaguing most of the li… +8.9%
2026-07-31 F Ford Motor Company model top 10 65% Ford offers the cleanest risk/reward in the pool: the model's highest conviction prob_up (0.624), no earnings for 84 days so no binary event inside the 10d wind… -2.1%
2026-07-30 LUV Southwest Airlines Co. model top 10 60% Among the pool LUV offers the cleanest risk/reward: it is oversold (RSI 39, -13.7% over 20d) with positive news sentiment and a strong model signal (prob_up 0.5… -1.6%
2026-07-29 KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. Claude override 55% KMI offers the cleanest risk/reward in the pool: prob_up 0.58 with a positive predicted return, rising sentiment (+0.41) tied to the AI-power/energy-infrastruct… -0.4%
2026-07-28 HPE Hewlett Packard Enterpri model top 10 60% HPE offers the cleanest risk/reward: it has confirmed momentum (+8% over 5d, +10% over 20d), RSI 56 with room to run, and crucially earnings are 38 days out so … +19.3%
2026-07-27 SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Claude override 55% SNPS offers the cleanest risk/reward: deeply oversold (RSI 26) with MACD turning up, the model's highest conviction in the pool (prob_up 0.63), and crucially no… +5.8%
2026-07-24 KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. Claude override 60% KMI offers the cleanest risk/reward in the pool: no earnings inside the 10-day window (>90d out), volume confirmation at 1.3x, a rising sentiment surge (+0.50),… -6.1%
2026-07-23 AMD Advanced Micro Devices, model top 10 68% AMD is the cleanest risk/reward in the pool: its earnings are 13 days out, clearing the entire 10-day forecast window while nearly every other model pick faces … -9.3%
2026-07-22 DDOG Datadog, Inc. Claude override 60% DDOG offers the cleanest risk/reward in the pool: prob_up 0.62 (among the highest), earnings safely 16 days out (no in-window catalyst), healthy 0.9x volume for… +15.2%
2026-07-21 S92.DE SMA Solar Technology AG model top 10 62% S92 is the rare candidate where the technical signal and the fundamental context agree: positive 5d/20d momentum (+7%), strong 7d sentiment (+0.59), prob_up 0.5… -9.5%
2026-07-20 SNPS Synopsys, Inc. Claude override 55% SNPS shows textbook capitulation — RSI 24 on 2.4x volume after a -13.7% 5d drop — while earnings are 53 days out, so there is no event risk inside the 10d windo… +3.6%
2026-07-19 PPL PPL Corporation Claude override 58% PPL carries the highest model conviction in the pool (prob_up 0.76) with a defensive utility profile, positive 7-day sentiment (+0.26), and stable price action … -0.6%

UP Model Calibration

Should be monotonically increasing — higher confidence = higher hit rate.
Prob BucketNHitsHit Ratevs 50%Trend
50-55% 39950 23332 58.4% +8.4pp
55-60% 19215 11248 58.5% +8.5pp
60-65% 6741 3735 55.4% +5.4pp
65-70% 2142 1149 53.6% +3.6pp
70%+ 1075 529 49.2% -0.8pp

Monthly UP Accuracy

Correct = actual 10-day return > 0%

Resolved Predictions

Most recent first. Correct = actual return > 0% (UP) or < 0% (DOWN).
DateTickerUP ProbDN Prob Actual 10dUPDN
2026-08-04 v3 SONY 73.1% 26.1% +4.83%
2026-08-04 v3 B 49.3% 52.0% +10.15%
2026-08-04 v3 HUT 42.8% 61.9% -20.14%
2026-08-04 v3 EXOD 48.0% 48.3% +16.36%
2026-08-04 v3 BE 38.8% 69.9% -8.37%
2026-08-04 v3 BUDA 33.3% 56.0% +12.42%
2026-08-04 v3 CRCL 42.8% 56.0% +13.41%
2026-08-04 v3 XRP 47.1% 48.6% -7.37%
2026-08-04 v3 IREN 48.0% 53.0% +2.82%
2026-08-04 v3 ZS 62.7% 41.0% +13.77%
2026-08-04 v3 WDAY 52.6% 46.5% +11.30%
2026-08-04 v3 TTD 59.7% 35.3% -30.61%
2026-08-04 v3 TEAM 50.2% 50.7% +47.77%
2026-08-04 v3 SMCI 56.7% 43.1% +18.05%
2026-08-04 v3 PENG 31.2% 65.1% +0.90%
2026-08-04 v3 PDD 65.8% 32.7% -4.13%
2026-08-04 v3 MRVL 44.4% 54.1% -1.18%
2026-08-04 v3 MELI 63.5% 37.1% -5.79%
2026-08-04 v3 MDB 53.0% 44.4% +14.36%
2026-08-04 v3 ILMN 53.5% 46.9% -7.25%
2026-08-04 v3 GFS 47.0% 52.8% -4.08%
2026-08-04 v3 DDOG 51.7% 46.5% -14.63%
2026-08-04 v3 DASH 59.7% 41.8% +6.91%
2026-08-04 v3 CRWD 49.7% 52.0% +0.80%
2026-08-04 v3 CCEP 54.9% 45.6% +1.29%
2026-08-04 v3 AZN 57.4% 41.0% +2.88%
2026-08-04 v3 ASML 45.2% 55.9% +5.32%
2026-08-04 v3 APP 53.5% 45.6% -26.79%
2026-08-04 v3 ABNB 63.2% 39.6% +22.23%
2026-08-04 v3 ZIG.L 55.8% 44.4% +2.06%
2026-08-04 v3 XPS.L 55.0% 41.8% -0.75%
2026-08-04 v3 WWH.L 53.0% 46.5% +3.39%
2026-08-04 v3 WOSG.L 51.7% 46.9% -1.77%
2026-08-04 v3 WIZZ.L 53.2% 46.9% -8.38%
2026-08-04 v3 WKP.L 53.0% 45.6% +0.00%
2026-08-04 v3 WIX.L 53.5% 44.4% -5.16%
2026-08-04 v3 VTY.L 51.7% 46.9% -4.65%
2026-08-04 v3 VSVS.L 57.0% 44.4% +3.67%
2026-08-04 v3 VOF.L 53.8% 45.6% -0.85%
2026-08-04 v3 VEIL.L 54.9% 43.3% -3.26%
2026-08-04 v3 VCT.L 51.7% 48.3% +0.62%
2026-08-04 v3 UTG.L 57.1% 41.8% -4.37%
2026-08-04 v3 USA.L 53.8% 44.4% +3.95%
2026-08-04 v3 UKW.L 54.9% 45.6% -4.15%
2026-08-04 v3 UEM.L 54.9% 44.4% -4.74%
2026-08-04 v3 TRY.L 54.9% 43.3% -4.75%
2026-08-04 v3 TRST.L 51.9% 45.6% -0.21%
2026-08-04 v3 TRN.L 54.9% 46.5% -2.54%
2026-08-04 v3 TRIG.L 53.2% 45.6% -3.02%
2026-08-04 v3 TPK.L 52.6% 47.6% -5.31%
2026-08-04 v3 TMPL.L 55.4% 41.8% +1.07%
2026-08-04 v3 THRL.L 53.0% 45.6% -2.99%
2026-08-04 v3 THG.L 51.9% 47.6% +4.11%
2026-08-04 v3 TFIF.L 54.9% 43.3% -0.09%
2026-08-04 v3 TEP.L 53.0% 44.4% +1.28%
2026-08-04 v3 TEM.L 54.9% 43.3% -0.22%
2026-08-04 v3 TCAP.L 55.8% 43.1% -2.59%
2026-08-04 v3 TBCG.L 53.2% 47.6% -3.06%
2026-08-04 v3 TATE.L 55.8% 39.6% +0.21%
2026-08-04 v3 SYNC.L 53.2% 46.5% +0.94%
2026-08-04 v3 SVS.L 57.0% 41.8% +11.76%
2026-08-04 v3 SUPR.L 54.9% 44.4% -2.31%
2026-08-04 v3 SSPG.L 55.8% 44.4% -1.72%
2026-08-04 v3 SRP.L 55.4% 43.3% +7.15%
2026-08-04 v3 SRE.L 51.7% 45.6% -6.39%
2026-08-04 v3 SPI.L 72.0% 27.9% +2.47%
2026-08-04 v3 SOI.L 53.5% 45.6% -0.80%
2026-08-04 v3 SNR.L 55.4% 36.9% +0.34%
2026-08-04 v3 SMWH.L 55.0% 44.4% -5.44%
2026-08-04 v3 SMIN.L 53.2% 45.6% -2.42%
2026-08-04 v3 SHC.L 53.5% 45.6% +1.02%
2026-08-04 v3 SHAW.L 47.8% 51.6% -1.64%
2026-08-04 v3 SEQI.L 55.8% 43.3% -4.41%
2026-08-04 v3 SEIT.L 55.8% 44.4% -6.98%
2026-08-04 v3 SDP.L 55.0% 43.3% -0.12%
2026-08-04 v3 SCT.L 53.5% 46.5% +3.64%
2026-08-04 v3 SAIN.L 64.4% 35.3% -2.42%
2026-08-04 v3 SAGA.L 50.5% 47.6% -3.03%
2026-08-04 v3 SAFE.L 54.9% 44.4% -2.55%
2026-08-04 v3 RTW.L 53.5% 45.6% +3.23%
2026-08-04 v3 RSW.L 52.6% 44.4% -0.77%
2026-08-04 v3 RS1.L 51.7% 46.5% -0.21%
2026-08-04 v3 RPI.L 47.1% 52.6% -6.63%
2026-08-04 v3 ROR.L 52.6% 44.4% -0.21%
2026-08-04 v3 RNK.L 54.9% 43.3% +1.99%
2026-08-04 v3 RICA.L 53.0% 43.3% +1.73%
2026-08-04 v3 RHIM.L 49.7% 48.3% +1.06%
2026-08-04 v3 RCP.L 50.2% 51.1% -0.76%
2026-08-04 v3 RAT.L 57.0% 41.0% +1.08%
2026-08-04 v3 QLT.L 57.0% 41.8% -0.71%
2026-08-04 v3 QQ.L 49.7% 47.6% +1.75%
2026-08-04 v3 PTEC.L 51.7% 46.9% +2.23%
2026-08-04 v3 PRN.L 47.5% 51.6% -4.02%
2026-08-04 v3 PPH.L 49.7% 51.6% -0.78%
2026-08-04 v3 PPET.L 51.7% 46.5% -3.26%
2026-08-04 v3 POLN.L 55.8% 44.4% +1.22%
2026-08-04 v3 PNN.L 51.7% 47.6% -0.61%
2026-08-04 v3 PNL.L 57.2% 40.2% -0.69%
2026-08-04 v3 PLUS.L 47.8% 50.7% -1.29%
2026-08-04 v3 PINT.L 55.0% 43.3% -0.89%
2026-08-04 v3 PIN.L 57.1% 41.0% +1.01%
2026-08-04 v3 PHP.L 54.9% 44.4% -0.60%
2026-08-04 v3 PHI.L 53.0% 45.6% -0.34%
2026-08-04 v3 PFD.L 53.5% 45.6% +1.79%
2026-08-04 v3 PETS.L 53.2% 46.5% +0.18%
2026-08-04 v3 PEY.L 53.5% 44.4% -0.28%
2026-08-04 v3 PCGH.L 55.0% 45.6% +1.24%
2026-08-04 v3 PAG.L 53.2% 45.6% -1.36%
2026-08-04 v3 PAF.L 50.5% 50.7% +14.07%
2026-08-04 v3 PAGE.L 53.0% 48.9% +10.26%
2026-08-04 v3 OXIG.L 50.5% 47.6% +2.06%
2026-08-04 v3 OXB.L 53.5% 46.5% -14.58%
2026-08-04 v3 OSB.L 55.0% 44.4% -9.44%
2026-08-04 v3 ONT.L 53.5% 44.4% +6.68%
2026-08-04 v3 OCI.L 53.0% 46.6% +0.65%
2026-08-04 v3 OCDO.L 55.4% 46.5% +18.96%
2026-08-04 v3 NCC.L 54.4% 44.4% -2.99%
2026-08-04 v3 NBPE.L 55.8% 43.2% -0.40%
2026-08-04 v3 NAS.L 57.0% 40.2% +1.28%
2026-08-04 v3 N91.L 54.9% 44.4% -1.55%
2026-08-04 v3 MYI.L 58.4% 39.6% -0.54%
2026-08-04 v3 MUT.L 54.9% 41.8% -2.27%
2026-08-04 v3 MTO.L 49.3% 47.6% +0.60%
2026-08-04 v3 MTRO.L 53.0% 46.5% +3.62%
2026-08-04 v3 MSLH.L 53.0% 46.5% -6.48%
2026-08-04 v3 MRCH.L 62.7% 35.3% -0.51%
2026-08-04 v3 MRC.L 53.2% 44.4% +1.32%
2026-08-04 v3 MOON.L 54.9% 44.4% +0.57%
2026-08-04 v3 MONY.L 51.7% 47.6% +1.28%
2026-08-04 v3 MNTN.L 59.7% 39.6% +12.17%
2026-08-04 v3 MNKS.L 55.0% 43.1% -0.62%
2026-08-04 v3 MKS.L 55.8% 43.1% -5.49%
2026-08-04 v3 MGNS.L 52.6% 47.6% +1.68%
2026-08-04 v3 MGAM.L 53.2% 44.4% +4.66%
2026-08-04 v3 MEGP.L 57.2% 43.1% -4.83%
2026-08-04 v3 MAB.L 54.9% 44.4% -1.41%
2026-08-04 v3 LWDB.L 54.9% 44.4% -0.95%
2026-08-04 v3 LRE.L 54.9% 44.4% +1.10%
2026-08-04 v3 KNOS.L 51.7% 50.7% +33.81%
2026-08-04 v3 KLR.L 54.9% 46.5% -2.23%
2026-08-04 v3 KIE.L 53.0% 46.5% +4.93%
2026-08-04 v3 JUP.L 53.0% 45.6% +0.25%
2026-08-04 v3 JTC.L 58.4% 35.3% +0.75%
2026-08-04 v3 JSG.L 54.9% 44.4% -4.35%
2026-08-04 v3 JMAT.L 51.7% 48.3% -16.52%
2026-08-04 v3 JGGI.L 54.9% 43.3% -0.86%
2026-08-04 v3 JFJ.L 52.6% 48.3% +0.73%
2026-08-04 v3 JET2.L 52.6% 47.6% -1.33%
2026-08-04 v3 JEMI.L 52.6% 46.5% +0.24%
2026-08-04 v3 JEGI.L 53.5% 44.4% -0.81%
2026-08-04 v3 JEDT.L 57.0% 43.2% +0.16%
2026-08-04 v3 JDW.L 54.4% 46.5% -0.80%
2026-08-04 v3 JCH.L 53.8% 43.3% -0.20%
2026-08-04 v3 JAM.L 54.9% 44.4% -0.16%
2026-08-04 v3 IWG.L 53.5% 45.6% -6.64%
2026-08-04 v3 ITV.L 53.2% 46.5% -1.77%
2026-08-04 v3 ITH.L 58.4% 43.1% +8.56%
2026-08-04 v3 IPO.L 54.9% 45.6% -0.45%
2026-08-04 v3 INVP.L 52.6% 46.9% -0.82%
2026-08-04 v3 INPP.L 54.9% 43.3% -3.60%
2026-08-04 v3 INCH.L 54.9% 44.4% -2.08%
2026-08-04 v3 IMI.L 53.0% 46.9% +1.79%
2026-08-04 v3 IHP.L 54.9% 44.4% +4.54%
2026-08-04 v3 IEM.L 54.4% 45.6% +2.30%
2026-08-04 v3 ICGT.L 57.0% 43.1% +1.22%
2026-08-04 v3 IBST.L 54.9% 43.3% -12.68%
2026-08-04 v3 IAD.L 53.0% 43.1% -1.94%
2026-08-04 v3 HWG.L 52.6% 45.6% +31.90%
2026-08-04 v3 HVPE.L 53.2% 45.6% +0.11%
2026-08-04 v3 HTG.L 55.8% 45.6% +9.70%
2026-08-04 v3 HTWS.L 51.7% 46.9% +2.48%
2026-08-04 v3 HSL.L 53.8% 45.6% +1.10%
2026-08-04 v3 HRI.L 51.7% 47.6% -0.74%
2026-08-04 v3 HOC.L 53.8% 46.9% +14.42%
2026-08-04 v3 HMSO.L 53.0% 46.9% -1.68%
2026-08-04 v3 HILS.L 54.4% 44.4% +2.56%
2026-08-04 v3 HICL.L 55.0% 43.1% -0.91%
2026-08-04 v3 HGT.L 51.9% 46.9% +8.26%
2026-08-04 v3 HFG.L 51.9% 46.5% +1.57%
2026-08-04 v3 HFEL.L 53.0% 46.5% -0.38%
2026-08-04 v3 HBR.L 53.0% 46.5% +6.94%
2026-08-04 v3 HAS.L 53.5% 45.9% +12.38%
2026-08-04 v3 GSCT.L 54.9% 43.3% +0.21%
2026-08-04 v3 GROW.L 51.7% 47.6% +8.90%
2026-08-04 v3 GRG.L 53.0% 46.5% -7.04%
2026-08-04 v3 GRI.L 51.7% 46.9% -0.63%
2026-08-04 v3 GPE.L 53.5% 45.6% -3.85%
2026-08-04 v3 GNS.L 53.5% 46.5% +3.36%
2026-08-04 v3 GNC.L 53.2% 47.6% -0.31%
2026-08-04 v3 GFTU.L 53.5% 45.6% +1.00%
2026-08-04 v3 GFRD.L 53.5% 45.6% +2.15%
2026-08-04 v3 GEN.L 51.9% 46.6% -8.52%
2026-08-04 v3 GDWN.L 46.5% 51.3% +4.45%
2026-08-04 v3 GCP.L 52.6% 45.6% -1.21%
2026-08-04 v3 GBG.L 53.2% 46.0% -27.93%
2026-08-04 v3 GAMA.L 53.2% 45.6% +0.41%
2026-08-04 v3 FSV.L 55.8% 41.8% +0.64%
2026-08-04 v3 FSG.L 51.7% 46.9% +1.32%
2026-08-04 v3 FRAS.L 54.9% 44.4% -1.63%
2026-08-04 v3 FOUR.L 53.2% 46.0% +4.05%