How "correct" is defined: UP model — predicted probability ≥50% and actual 10-day return >0%. DOWN model — predicted probability ≥50% and actual 10-day return <0%.  |  Model retrained 20260619 with fixed labels and OOF calibration — new-model predictions are marked new below.
All resolved predictions (includes pre-20260619 old model)
Resolved
37357
predictions evaluated
UP Hit Rate
54.5%
10421/19112  ·  avg 2.10%
DOWN Hit Rate
52.5%
286/545  ·  avg 6.26%
New model only (retrained 20260619)
Resolved new
6503
from current model
UP Hit Rate new
60.0%
3694/6153  ·  avg 4.54%
DOWN Hit Rate new
54.0%
189/350

UP Model Calibration

Should be monotonically increasing — higher confidence = higher hit rate.
Prob BucketNHitsHit Ratevs 50%Trend
50-55% 9728 5427 55.8% +5.8pp
55-60% 5044 2801 55.5% +5.5pp
60-65% 2510 1285 51.2% +1.2pp
65-70% 1091 545 50.0% -0.1pp
70%+ 739 363 49.1% -0.9pp

Monthly UP Accuracy

Correct = actual 10-day return > 0%

Resolved Predictions

Most recent first. Correct = actual return > 0% (UP) or < 0% (DOWN).
DateTickerUP ProbDN Prob Actual 10dUPDN
2026-06-05 new IFX.DE 80.6% 19.0% +7.59%
2026-06-05 new WLN.PA 81.4% 22.0% +3391.18%
2026-06-05 new DHER.DE 75.4% 26.0% -5.73%
2026-06-05 new AKZA.AS 65.6% 37.2% +2.93%
2026-06-05 new SOI.PA 61.2% 41.5% -17.90%
2026-06-05 new TATE.L 52.7% 43.6% +12.23%
2026-06-05 new AIXA.DE 73.0% 32.6% +10.10%
2026-06-05 new GDWN.L 58.4% 44.4% +9.38%
2026-06-05 new SPI.L 53.4% 43.4% +0.00%
2026-06-05 new RPI.L 54.7% 46.6% -17.41%
2026-06-05 new BARC.L 66.4% 32.6% +8.73%
2026-06-05 new JEN.DE 62.9% 35.6% +4.43%
2026-06-05 new ALFEN.AS 57.2% 45.5% +0.38%
2026-06-05 new RIO.L 66.4% 37.6% -2.08%
2026-06-05 new FR.PA 66.4% 31.0% -10.65%
2026-06-05 new OCDO.L 56.5% 45.5% -9.24%
2026-06-05 new SAP.DE 62.9% 40.8% -16.55%
2026-06-05 new STLAM.MI 63.3% 38.5% -9.90%
2026-06-05 new VOD.L 60.7% 40.8% -3.49%
2026-06-05 new SHEL.L 52.7% 42.0% -6.82%
2026-06-05 new VTY.L 57.1% 43.4% -6.53%
2026-06-05 new RHM.DE 60.7% 35.6% -0.81%
2026-06-05 new BEWI.OL 54.2% 45.0% +6.29%
2026-06-05 new CAP.PA 60.7% 38.5% -12.26%
2026-06-05 new ARCH.OL 60.7% 35.6% -7.29%
2026-06-05 new HAFNI.OL 57.8% 40.5% +0.36%
2026-06-05 new ASML.AS 58.4% 41.5% +13.87%
2026-06-05 new WAF.DE 58.4% 40.8% +1.37%
2026-06-05 new AKER.OL 57.8% 42.0% -10.34%
2026-06-05 new GBF.DE 60.3% 41.5% +6.35%
2026-06-05 new TEP.L 58.4% 42.0% -3.67%
2026-06-05 new FRO.OL 59.8% 37.2% +15.29%
2026-06-05 new HOC.L 58.4% 40.8% +2.86%
2026-06-05 new AML.L 56.7% 43.6% -1.27%
2026-06-05 new RACE.MI 57.8% 43.4% +4.29%
2026-06-05 new VOW.OL 53.4% 46.8% -0.88%
2026-06-05 new EQNR.OL 53.4% 46.6% -9.86%
2026-06-05 new COV.PA 61.2% 40.7% +0.28%
2026-06-05 new MTRO.L 58.4% 42.5% +4.38%
2026-06-05 new NDX1.DE 56.5% 42.5% +14.75%
2026-06-05 new IWG.L 60.3% 41.5% +2.98%
2026-06-05 new NSKOG.OL 54.9% 40.8% +7.86%
2026-06-05 new MTO.L 58.4% 38.5% -7.94%
2026-06-05 new TEF.MC 57.2% 43.4% -5.15%
2026-06-05 new AIR.PA 54.1% 47.7% +6.41%
2026-06-05 new KGX.DE 58.4% 40.5% +4.13%
2026-06-05 new FRES.L 60.3% 40.8% +0.00%
2026-06-05 new BSIF.L 52.4% 47.0% -0.22%
2026-06-05 new FLTR.L 54.9% 43.4% +2.18%
2026-06-05 new BMW.DE 60.3% 40.8% -13.81%
2026-06-05 new PAF.L 50.9% 47.7% -0.16%
2026-06-05 new BOWL.L 55.4% 46.6% +0.87%
2026-06-05 new PUM.DE 60.3% 37.2% +4.30%
2026-06-05 new BWLPG.OL 59.7% 40.5% -8.20%
2026-06-05 new SMHN.DE 57.8% 38.2% +24.00%
2026-06-05 new AIR.DE 52.7% 47.8% +6.40%
2026-06-05 new MBG.DE 62.2% 40.8% -5.59%
2026-06-05 new AF.PA 58.4% 38.2% +10.33%
2026-06-05 new IPF.L 61.2% 26.0% +0.20%
2026-06-05 new COL.MC 56.8% 42.9% +1.54%
2026-06-05 new STAN.L 62.2% 33.9% +6.00%
2026-06-05 new ULVR.L 60.7% 42.0% +4.56%
2026-06-05 new ORA.PA 60.3% 39.1% -2.81%
2026-06-05 new ORK.OL 56.7% 43.4% +1.89%
2026-06-05 new UNA.AS 60.3% 42.0% +4.01%
2026-06-05 new WIX.L 56.7% 45.0% +2.69%
2026-06-05 new MSLH.L 62.9% 38.5% +8.48%
2026-06-05 new ACA.PA 58.4% 43.4% +6.87%
2026-06-05 new BATS.L 56.5% 42.9% -0.75%
2026-06-05 new LSG.OL 54.2% 43.4% +1.62%
2026-06-05 new BP.L 50.4% 48.5% -8.39%
2026-06-05 new EOAN.DE 56.7% 45.0% -0.36%
2026-06-05 new PRU.L 61.2% 33.9% +5.56%
2026-06-05 new WPP.L 66.4% 35.6% +3.31%
2026-06-05 new DTE.DE 60.7% 40.5% -4.37%
2026-06-05 new GSK.L 54.7% 45.0% -0.41%
2026-06-05 new ALV.DE 57.2% 40.8% +7.43%
2026-06-05 new EDEN.PA 57.0% 44.4% +6.70%
2026-06-05 new IMCD.AS 54.1% 45.0% -6.59%
2026-06-05 new AD.AS 57.8% 41.6% -3.01%
2026-06-05 new EVD.DE 59.8% 40.8% -2.76%
2026-06-05 new MAU.PA 51.0% 46.6% -12.99%
2026-06-05 new EVK.DE 55.4% 42.0% +1.32%
2026-06-05 new LEG.DE 58.4% 41.5% +0.96%
2026-06-05 new UTDI.DE 56.5% 45.0% -12.62%
2026-06-05 new BHP.L 62.2% 38.5% +2.29%
2026-06-05 new LR.PA 60.3% 38.5% +4.27%
2026-06-05 new WKL.AS 57.2% 43.4% -7.47%
2026-06-05 new TEL.OL 56.5% 43.6% -2.35%
2026-06-05 new GAMA.L 56.7% 43.6% -4.45%
2026-06-05 new FGR.PA 58.4% 43.4% +4.00%
2026-06-05 new VNA.DE 57.2% 42.0% +1.49%
2026-06-05 new HWG.L 55.4% 46.3% -0.45%
2026-06-05 new SAFE.L 53.4% 45.0% -2.89%
2026-06-05 new RNO.PA 63.3% 35.6% +3.95%
2026-06-05 new ALO.PA 54.1% 47.8% -6.01%
2026-06-05 new GNC.L 57.8% 43.4% +2.19%
2026-06-05 new HTWS.L 55.4% 41.3% -4.67%
2026-06-05 new MUV2.DE 55.4% 45.0% +4.37%
2026-06-05 new BIM.PA 49.8% 47.7% -7.07%
2026-06-05 new NOD.OL 57.2% 42.0% -2.23%
2026-06-05 new LSEG.L 52.7% 46.6% -11.25%
2026-06-05 new CS.PA 57.0% 43.4% +7.24%
2026-06-05 new BT-A.L 54.7% 43.6% -3.80%
2026-06-05 new AGN.AS 54.9% 43.6% +2.22%
2026-06-05 new BREE.L 55.4% 43.4% +10.52%
2026-06-05 new YAR.OL 57.0% 42.5% -9.30%
2026-06-05 new BNR.DE 55.4% 43.6% -4.51%
2026-06-05 new SDF.DE 52.4% 48.5% -4.44%
2026-06-05 new PPH.L 56.5% 46.2% -15.49%
2026-06-05 new ATYM.L 57.8% 42.5% +8.88%
2026-06-05 new SUBC.OL 56.7% 45.0% +3.83%
2026-06-05 new NN.AS 54.9% 43.6% +4.74%
2026-06-05 new DGE.L 59.7% 38.5% +2.54%
2026-06-05 new REP.MC 55.4% 41.6% -5.81%
2026-06-05 new RR.L 57.2% 42.5% +11.19%
2026-06-05 new SRP.L 54.9% 44.4% -7.86%
2026-06-05 new HEIA.AS 54.9% 45.0% +4.70%
2026-06-05 new TBCG.L 54.9% 43.4% +2.74%
2026-06-05 new TW.L 57.2% 42.0% +2.33%
2026-06-05 new CPR.MI 56.5% 42.5% -1.56%
2026-06-05 new GROW.L 55.4% 43.6% +3.41%
2026-06-05 new COA.L 57.2% 42.5% -2.19%
2026-06-05 new VIV.PA 56.5% 43.4% +0.64%
2026-06-05 new WEIR.L 54.7% 43.6% +3.20%
2026-06-05 new ERA.PA 57.8% 42.5% -2.04%
2026-06-05 new DNO.OL 51.6% 47.7% -9.04%
2026-06-05 new NESN.SW 56.5% 43.4% +2.23%
2026-06-05 new AKSO.OL 55.4% 43.4% +1.63%
2026-06-05 new SCMN.SW 58.4% 40.8% -3.08%
2026-06-05 new S92.DE 53.3% 43.6% -0.42%
2026-06-05 new HBR.L 54.7% 45.0% -11.97%
2026-06-05 new MAP.MC 56.8% 43.4% +8.17%
2026-06-05 new OERL.SW 57.0% 42.5% +7.65%
2026-06-05 new GMM.DE 57.2% 40.8% +4.88%
2026-06-05 new SAGA.L 57.0% 45.0% +6.37%
2026-06-05 new TLX.DE 58.4% 40.8% +6.68%
2026-06-05 new ONT.L 51.0% 47.7% -8.56%
2026-06-05 new LXS.DE 58.4% 40.8% +5.85%
2026-06-05 new ROR.L 54.9% 44.4% +2.39%
2026-06-05 new MNTN.L 53.4% 42.0% -1.38%
2026-06-05 new ENOG.L 54.2% 45.5% -5.26%
2026-06-05 new IMB.L 55.4% 43.4% -0.87%
2026-06-05 new QQ.L 57.2% 44.4% -6.63%
2026-06-05 new HSBA.L 56.5% 42.0% +5.12%
2026-06-05 new KGF.L 53.4% 44.4% -0.32%
2026-06-05 new SY1.DE 54.9% 43.4% +11.97%
2026-06-05 new GEN.L 57.2% 41.5% +6.41%
2026-06-05 new MOWI.OL 56.5% 42.0% +2.30%
2026-06-05 new CNA.L 54.7% 46.8% -8.15%
2026-06-05 new PTEC.L 54.2% 46.2% -10.08%
2026-06-05 new MTS.MC 58.4% 40.8% -6.65%
2026-06-05 new ODF.OL 55.4% 42.9% -1.78%
2026-06-05 new HNR1.DE 56.7% 41.5% +2.38%
2026-06-05 new BBVA.MC 57.8% 40.8% +10.87%
2026-06-05 new BAS.DE 53.4% 47.8% -3.98%
2026-06-05 new CCR.L 54.1% 46.2% +2.86%
2026-06-05 new SBMO.AS 52.4% 48.5% -3.49%
2026-06-05 new SCYR.MC 54.7% 45.0% +3.15%
2026-06-05 new SNR.L 57.2% 33.9% +0.35%
2026-06-05 new DIA.MI 53.4% 43.6% -8.57%
2026-06-05 new KBX.DE 54.9% 43.4% +3.18%
2026-06-05 new ZURN.SW 56.5% 42.0% +4.25%
2026-06-05 new GRI.L 56.7% 44.4% +9.84%
2026-06-05 new A2A.MI 54.2% 45.0% +1.47%
2026-06-05 new ABDN.L 55.4% 42.0% -5.62%
2026-06-05 new SALM.OL 56.5% 41.6% +1.40%
2026-06-05 new NEX.PA 54.1% 45.0% +3.49%
2026-06-05 new ASHM.L 53.4% 46.6% -2.14%
2026-06-05 new ALFA.L 57.8% 42.0% -2.68%
2026-06-05 new KOG.OL 52.4% 48.5% -3.08%
2026-06-05 new AJB.L 54.1% 45.5% -1.56%
2026-06-05 new VOW3.DE 53.4% 44.8% -8.36%
2026-06-05 new OCI.AS 56.5% 42.0% +1.48%
2026-06-05 new AZN.L 46.2% 50.2% -4.07%
2026-06-05 new ELM.L 53.4% 46.3% +4.22%
2026-06-05 new ENI.MI 55.4% 45.0% -8.00%
2026-06-05 new MAB.L 52.7% 45.5% +0.64%
2026-06-05 new TEP.PA 54.2% 42.0% -6.82%
2026-06-05 new RMS.PA 57.8% 42.0% +6.89%
2026-06-05 new RTO.L 54.7% 45.0% -2.78%
2026-06-05 new LDO.MI 51.9% 48.5% +1.79%
2026-06-05 new DSFIR.AS 57.8% 42.0% +12.36%
2026-06-05 new FRE.DE 50.4% 48.5% +5.90%
2026-06-05 new LISP.SW 52.7% 46.2% -1.46%
2026-06-05 new ADS.DE 55.4% 43.4% +7.87%
2026-06-05 new CURY.L 57.8% 42.0% +1.55%
2026-06-05 new DRX.L 54.9% 44.8% -6.92%
2026-06-05 new AC.PA 55.4% 43.4% +7.16%
2026-06-05 new ITH.L 51.6% 46.8% -4.10%
2026-06-05 new PETS.L 54.2% 47.0% -6.27%
2026-06-05 new FCH.L 52.7% 47.8% +5.80%
2026-06-05 new USA.L 53.2% 45.0% -2.60%
2026-06-05 new SVS.L 53.4% 45.0% +4.77%
2026-06-05 new BWY.L 57.8% 43.4% +1.82%
2026-06-05 new CA.PA 53.4% 44.4% -5.37%
2026-06-05 new GLEN.L 55.4% 45.5% -5.68%
2026-06-05 new HAL.AS 53.3% 46.3% -3.08%
2026-06-05 new ALC.SW 51.0% 46.6% -1.02%
2026-06-05 new FRA.DE 55.4% 45.0% +5.80%